Populism and Its Impact on Policy Stability

Abstract

This study examines the impact of populism on policy stability through a mixed-methods approach that integrates quantitative panel regression analyses with qualitative case studies from diverse political contexts. The quantitative results revealed a strong negative association between populist intensity and policy stability, with populist-led governments exhibiting higher frequencies of fiscal volatility, policy reversals, and abrupt regulatory changes. Regression models confirmed populism as a significant predictor of instability, while mediation analysis demonstrated that institutional trust plays a crucial role in moderating this relationship. Countries with higher levels of institutional erosion under populist rule displayed sharper declines in policy predictability and coherence. Subgroup analyses further showed gender and geographic variations, as women and urban populations expressed greater concerns regarding instability compared to men and rural residents. The qualitative findings reinforced these results, as case narratives from Brazil, Hungary, the United States, and the Philippines illustrated how populist leadership often prioritizes immediate electoral gains over long-term policy coherence. These cases highlighted patterns of expansionary fiscal policies followed by austerity, legal manipulation, and policy uncertainty that weaken democratic resilience. Collectively, the study concludes that while populism may energize democratic participation in the short term, its long-term effect is detrimental to policy stability. Addressing these risks requires reinforcing institutional checks and balances, promoting civic education, and ensuring independent bureaucratic structures capable of maintaining policy continuity beyond populist cycles